Instruments
A plain Supertrend traded on NIFTY synthetic futures returned about 38% a year on capital in our test, well paid for the risks, and held up in both halves. But its edge isn’t statistically proven yet, and the worst drawdown took about half the capital.
· 6 min read
It wins about two trades in three, but the average trade is too small to tell apart from luck, and since 2018 it has made nothing. Over 17½ years it earned under 2% a year, against about 12.6% for simply holding NIFTY.
· 5 min read
The best opening-range setting on the NIFTY index made a thin profit; traded on futures with realistic costs, the same setting lost money. Across 18 settings, none was profitable beyond luck.
· 5 min read
Backtesting fills on the NIFTY spot index, a number you cannot buy or sell, lets a strategy trade at prices no real instrument ever offered.
· 4 min read