Strategies
Rules, backtest, risks, pros & cons, and our verdict.
Buying the NIFTY weekly option that jumps 50% in a day and holding it overnight made money after costs over five years and passed all eight checks, the first option-buying strategy on our bench to do so. But it loses on more than half its trades, its edge has thinned since 2024, and the worst drawdown took about a third of the capital.
· 9 min read
Holding the NIFTY 500’s 30 least volatile stocks, rebalanced quarterly, passed all eight of our checks: about 15% a year after costs against about 13% for the index, with a −26% worst drawdown against the index’s −38%. The return edge came mostly before 2020.
· 6 min read
Holding the NIFTY 500’s 15 strongest stocks, and selling only when they drop out of the top 30, passed all eight of our checks: CAGR of about 22% after costs, against about 13% for the index. The catch is a −49% drawdown, deeper than the index’s.
· 6 min read
Selling a weekly NIFTY call and put 600 points away made money in all 13 quarters we tested, about 15% a year on capital. But losses are uncapped: on election-results day in 2024 the position was down about ₹60,000 per lot within hours.
· 6 min read
Holding the NIFTY 50 only while its 20-day EMA was above its 50-day EMA, and keeping the money in a liquid fund the rest of the time (assumed to earn 6% a year), made 9.9% a year over 18½ years against 7.7% for buying and holding the index, with a worst fall of −25% instead of −60%. The smaller drawdown held from every start date, with returns comparable to buy and hold.
· 12 min read
A plain Supertrend traded on NIFTY synthetic futures returned about 61% a year on capital in our test, with an edge beyond luck that held up in both halves and at double costs. But nudging the multiplier weakens it sharply, and the worst drawdown took about 43% of the capital.
· 6 min read
Selling a ₹30 SENSEX call and put the day before expiry and holding them overnight won 90% of 156 trades over three years, comfortably beyond luck, and survived double costs. But losses are uncapped and there is no stop: a 5% gap on a calm week would cost about 1.7 years of average profit, and the sample never contained one.
· 10 min read
Over five years, a widely taught 45-days-to-expiry option-selling rule made about 18% a year on capital on NIFTY. But only 14 of 22 quarters were profitable, results swung widely with the exit day, and its 50% profit target never fired once.
· 8 min read
Selling far out-of-the-money NIFTY weekly options four sessions before expiry won 83% of its trades over five years. But the average loss was nearly four times the average win, one weekend gap in April 2025 cost about 40% of the five-year profit, and after costs it earned about 4% a year on capital.
· 9 min read
Selling the NIFTY at-the-money straddle at 9:20 am on every weekly expiry, with a 30% stop on the pair, made a small profit over five years after costs, about 6.6% a year on capital. But it lost on six trades in ten, the result is not distinguishable from luck, and 2022 and 2023 made almost nothing.
· 8 min read
The best opening-range setting on the NIFTY index made a thin profit; traded on futures with realistic costs, the same setting made almost nothing (+597 points in 3¾ years, about 3% a year on capital). Across 18 settings, none was profitable beyond luck.
· 6 min read
The two-line VWAP + EMA(11) rule had no edge before costs on 1- to 30-minute candles over four years of NIFTY futures, and after a realistic 13.7 points per round trip it lost on every timeframe. Holding positions overnight on 15-minute candles found a real but small edge, about 4.5 points a trade, still far below the cost of trading it.
· 8 min read
Buying the NIFTY 500’s 20 biggest losers of the past year and holding them for a year lost money: about −1% a year over 12½ years, against about +13% for the index, with an 80% fall along the way. Last year’s losers mostly kept losing.
· 5 min read
It wins about two trades in three, but the average trade is too small to tell apart from luck, and since 2018 it has made nothing. Over 17½ years it earned under 2% a year, against about 12.6% for simply holding NIFTY.
· 5 min read
A neatly hedged monthly structure that won two trades in three over five years. But even at ten lots per order, costs took about two-thirds of the gross profit, and a single gap down in April 2025 cost about 85% of what was left.
· 9 min read
No strategies match.
Sorted by checks passed, most first. How we score strategies →