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Selling far out-of-the-money NIFTY weekly options four sessions before expiry won 83% of its trades over five years. But the average loss was nearly four times the average win, one weekend gap in April 2025 cost about 40% of the five-year profit, and after costs it earned about 4% a year on capital.
· 9 min read
Selling the NIFTY at-the-money straddle at 9:20 am on every weekly expiry, with a 30% stop on the pair, made a small profit over five years after costs, about 6.6% a year on capital. But it lost on six trades in ten, the result is not distinguishable from luck, and 2022 and 2023 made almost nothing.
· 8 min read
Selling a ₹30 SENSEX call and put the day before expiry and holding them overnight won 90% of 156 trades over three years, comfortably beyond luck, and survived double costs. But losses are uncapped and there is no stop: a 5% gap on a calm week would cost about 1.7 years of average profit, and the sample never contained one.
· 10 min read
Buying the NIFTY weekly option that jumps 50% in a day and holding it overnight made money after costs over five years and passed all eight checks, the first option-buying strategy on our bench to do so. But it loses on more than half its trades, its edge has thinned since 2024, and the worst drawdown took about a third of the capital.
· 9 min read